Quantifying the consequence of applying conservative assumptions in the assessment of oil spill effects on polar cod (Boreogadus saida) populations

Abstract In order to assess the potential impact from oil spills and decide optimal response actions, prediction of population level effects key resources is crucial. These assessments are usually based on acute toxicity data combined with precautionary assumptions because chronic often lacking. To better understand consequences applying approaches, two approaches for assessing Arctic keystone species polar cod ( Boreogadus saida ) were compared: a approach, where all exposed individuals die when above defined threshold concentration, refined (full-dose-response) approach. A matrix model was used recovery duration scenarios various but constant exposure concentrations, durations temperatures. The difference between largest exposures relatively low concentrations short durations. Here, approach less than eight times that found Quantifying these differences helps applied environmental risk assessment in spill decision making it can feed into discussion about need more testing. An elasticity analysis our identified embryo larval survival as crucial processes life cycle its population.